Forecasting and responding to qualification needs in Sweden

There are more people exiting than entering their active working life in Sweden every year. In addition, the ongoing restructuring of labour markets implies significant changes in occupational structures and skill requirements. Under such conditions it is perhaps more important and more challenging than ever, to ensure efficient matching of qualification supply and demand. The central theme of this paper is the identification and tackling of labour market mismatches where unemployment and labour shortages are found simultaneously. There are various different actors engaged in the forecasting of labour market developments in Sweden but Statistics Sweden (SCB) and the National Labour Market Administration (AMV) stand out as the main providers. Recent forecasts indicate diminishing recruitment problems in Sweden but they also highlight several exceptions to this trend, in particular within the municipality sector. Other nonmatched skill needs include technical qualifications and, in the long run, construction workers. The forecast results are used for planning with the system of qualification supply, in particular concerning the need for labour within occupations with clearly identifiable qualification demands. Nevertheless, the forecasts are based on relatively strong assumptions and they are unable to fully account for the innovation of new jobs and new types of education. An important aspect of the Swedish adjustment process is the ongoing interactions with the surrounding society. The paper accounts for forecast models and methods, recent results as well as availability of relevant reference statistics in Sweden. The discussion on tackling of mismatches accounts for active public supply adjustment aiming for optimal distribution of the supply labour by type of qualification. The main institutions within the Swedish system of qualification supply are discussed with focus on the links between training supply and forecast results, government management and institutional framework, general supply strategy and measures, and networks with the surrounding society. The paper also includes a section presenting some examples of recent trends and developments of skill matching in Sweden.